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News Analysis
By
Yasser Alaskary
January 12, 2003
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War is really being delayed and alternative options
are being discussed.
- This,
however, is unlikely for the following reasons:
- Military
preparations are not only continuing but intensifying.
Only hours after ordering 35,000 extra troops
to head for Iraq, the Pentagon ordered another 62,000
on Sunday. Furthermore, such a large number
of troops cannot be maintained for too long
in the region without military action.
- Other
British and almost all
American officials are
still saying that war is the most likely option.
- Last
week saw some high profile meetings between
American and Iraqi opposition leaders, indicating
that preparations for a post-Saddam Iraq are
still continuing.
- The
US/UK have some hidden evidence that they believe
will clearly show Saddam in breach of the UN and
guarantee backing for war from the UN Security
Council, possibly even with another resolution.
So they are now in the process of giving the impression
that they want to avoid a war and are willing
to give inspectors the time they need until they
release this information before Blix's January
27th report.
- The
US has decided to go to war without the UN. To
cover its back and to quell opposition in parliament
and the country, the UK government is creating
the impression it wants to avoid a war and would
like to go through the UN, so that when the US
announces they are going alone, Blair can claim
he is forced to join so as to influence and restrain
the US.
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Blix said in his latest report that his team had
not found "any smoking guns",
but that Iraq's 12,000 page weapons declaration
"failed to answer a great many questions".
Saddam, in his annual Army Day address, accused
UN weapons inspectors of being spies - possibly indicating
that when he feels he can no longer buy himself
more time or when inspectors are close to finding
his weapons he would expel them.
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