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News Analysis

• After Chirac vowed to veto any second resolution and the French, Russians and Germans refused to give Saddam any ultimatum, the US considers abandoning a UN resolution. Bush, Blair and Aznar held an emergency summit in Azores, saying that diplomacy ends Monday, signalling that military action is only days away. If France maintains its opposition to the draft resolution, then the US will probably give Saddam a 72-hour deadline to leave Iraq or face war - this also gives the inspectors time to leave Iraq.
  
  
• Saddam's regime, in another attempt to delay matters, seeks to meet with Blix and ElBaradei. At the same time Saddam warns of world war if US strikes and divides the country into four areas in preparation for war. However, the regular army is unlikely to fight for Saddam since it is not loyalty but fear of Saddam that has kept them on his side so far. There is still speculation that Saddam will flee Iraq as his old friend Gorbachev requests he step down.
  
  
• The Azores summit spelled out some details of a post-Saddam Iraq:
  • bringing in humanitarian aid to the Iraqi people
  • supporting Iraqi territorial unity
  • forming an Iraqi interim authority and a "representative government" - in what form was not explained
  • using Iraq's oil for the benefit of the people
  • end to economic sanctions

  Also the US released a list of Iraqi officials wanted for War Crimes - emphasising that this is about regime change.