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News Analysis
By
Ahmed Alaskary and Ali Latif
September 21, 2006
The
way forward in Iraq
- After
a period of uncertainty over what to do in Iraq, essentially
two views have emerged from Washington:
- Abandon
Iraq
This case has been presented in several forms:
- Split Iraq up into 3 autonomous regions based on
sectarian lines.
- Establish
a new friendly dictatorship after convening with local
neighbors
- Allow
civil war to take place and one clear winner will
emerge
- A
short-term increase in the number of troops
A measure to deal with the Baathist – Jihadist
insurgency.
- The
abandon Iraq option will hand 'victory' to the insurgency
which seeks to oust the US from Iraq and overthrow its
nascent democratic government. The ramifications of
a post-withdrawal Iraq will be felt for years to come
as Salafi-Wahabi terrorists from the region will transform
western and central Iraq into a terrorist haven. Furthermore,
the more the US disengages and undermines moderates
in Iraq, the more Iranian influence will grow.
- Abandoning
democracy will be the ultimate nail in the coffin for
the US desire for a new Middle East. The perceived failure
in any of these scenarios will embolden the dictatorial
regimes in the region, which are the breeding grounds
for global Salafi-Wahabi Islamist terrorist groups.
- An
increase in troops, particularly in Baghdad is necessary
to stop the continuous bloodshed and downward spiral
to civil war. Securing the capital requires doing
the job that was never done – destroying the Sunni-dominated
Baath Party intelligence and security apparatus, which
provides the backbone, the brains and the logistics
of the insurgency in Iraq. This will free Iraq's Sunni
community from this shadow and allow them to fully take
part in the democratic process and embrace the national
reconciliation process, as their democratically elected
leaders have urged. Furthermore, improving security
from terrorists attacks will undermine the militias
and provide Iraq's government with the necessary conditions
to take on the militias.
- Positive
steps such as the tribes of Anbar agreeing to unite against Al-Qaeda
and the reforms being implemented in the security forces
provide the impetus for the US and Iraqi governments
to carry on working towards stabilizing Iraq and consolidating
its democratic future.
Moqtada
and the Mehdi Army
- On
the issue of Moqtada Al-Sadr, several commentators have
admitted that he must be dealt with politically, not
militarily, and he must now be grudgingly accepted as
a legitimate political player. His embrace of the political
process and pubic calls for restraint over the last
year demonstrate he is amenable to abandoning violence.
- There
is growing doubt over how much control Moqtada actually
has over the Mehdi Army militia. The incident in Diwaniyah last month, where Moqtada called for the
Mahdi Army to put down its arms without success indicates
there are elements in the Mahdi Army who are not loyal
to Moqtada.
- And
this presents itself as an opportunity. Moqtada Al-Sadr
should be encouraged to recruit elements of the Mehdi
Army which are both loyal to him and do not have blood
on their hands to take on the rogue elements of the
Mehdi army as part of a combined effort by the Iraqi
government. The National Reconciliation Plan can serve
as the vehicle for bringing about such a plan and can
be coordinated by his representatives in parliament.
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