Iraqi Prospect Organisation

News Analysis

By Yasser Alaskary
December 22, 2002

the conclusion of the Iraqi opposition conference, which resulted in a blue-print for Iraq's democratisation and a follow up committee which is set to meet in northern Iraq in the Kurdish safe haven on January 15, 2003
Hanx Blix declaring Iraq's dossier as having "nothing new" and having gaps
Colin Powell stating Iraq is in "material breach" of UN Security Council Resolution 1441, which means the campaign to oust Saddam's regime can start as soon as preparations are ready. He also listed the aims of a war with Saddam, which included minimising casualties and liberating the Iraqi people
Bush has cancelled a trip to Africa that was scheduled from 10th-17th of January to concentrate on Iraq.

Preparations for war have intensified with the US carrying out the largest live-fire exercise in the region since the Gulf War only miles away from Iraq's border.
US forces have started dropping leaflets and making radio broadcasts over Iraq urging Iraqis to rise against Saddam. The war to overthrow Saddam's regime is likely to start with the US bombing Iraq from the sky followed by an Iraqi uprising which will then control the streets.
Currently there are several possible triggers for war, the most likely involving Iraqi scientists - either from the information disclosed by them on Saddam's WMD programme or a row over interviewing them. January 27, 2003 is likely to be decision day when weapons inspectors submit their first report to the Security Council, and military action will start soon after. Tony Blair has already told British forces to be prepared for war, with some already at the front line.
As part of political preparations for war to oust Saddam, Tony Blair has invited Palestinian leaders for a conference in London to re-launch the peace process.