The Bush Iraq Plan - Make or Break…
By
Sama Hadad
Friday, May 28, 2004
On
the 24th May 2004, President Bush reaffirmed his vision
for a democratic and free Iraq. If successful, this plan
would see Iraq as a shining example of democracy and liberty
in the Middle East. Whilst this may be one of the boldest
political endeavors since World War II, it is a fragile
process that will not survive any political mistakes. The
selection of the transitional Iraqi government presents
the greatest opportunity for such a mistake to be made.
Having lived
under generations of successive minority-dominated regimes,
Iraq's Shia rejoiced when Saddam's statue was brought down.
Subsequently, Shia regions have been largely quiet in comparison
to the volatile Sunni triangle, which has been witness to
large Coalition casualties. Despite the ongoing instability
and mounting deaths, the Shia have remained optimistic about
their future. The Americans came with the promise of democracy
and liberty and therefore the majority of the Shia remained
patient and hopeful. To them, short-term inconveniences
and struggles were an inevitable difficulty that could be
tolerated, in the hope that a new Iraq would emerge. A new
Iraq that would bear no resemblance to that of the past.
Sitting in a house in the slums of Baghdad in the sweltering
heat of August last year, one woman reassured me when the
power went out, "my dear, all this is worth it…..prior
to this past month, when have the Shia ever been the majority
in government?" She was of course referring to the
majority-Shia Governing Council, formed in July.
Now imagine,
come the 1st July, and Iraqis wake up to a 'new Iraq' whose
president or prime minister is a Sunni Arab. What will Iraq's
Shia think? What will they do? It will not escape them that
history is being repeated, for once again they will find
themselves in an Iraq which is two-thirds Shia, but governed
by an individual selected from the one-sixth Sunni Arab
population. To them, Operation Iraqi Freedom will have been
a sham and the lives lost on both theirs and the Coalition's
side will have been lost in vain. Once again the seeds of
minority rule will have been sown in Iraq to create a harvest
of discord.
Iraq is embarking
on a crucial stage in its transition to democracy. The next
eighteen months will set the foundations for a democratic
Iraq: a permanent constitution, a referendum and Iraq's
first democratically elected national government. With ongoing
terrorist activities and continuing security difficulties,
its entrance into this crucial phase will be unstable to
say the least. The compounding instability that will be
created by handing over to an unpopular government headed
by a Sunni president or prime minister, will obliterate
any chance of Iraq becoming a beacon of democracy in the
Middle East. Iraq's central and southern regions, the Shia
heartlands, will erupt into unrest on a scale yet to be
witnessed.
Ayatollah Sistani,
the Shia's most senior religious leader, must not be forgotten.
Although he is opposed to a theocracy in Iraq and does not
wish to hold a political position, he has proven to be vocal
whenever Iraq's Shia have been threatened. When Sistani
felt that Shia representation was at risk from Bremer's
caucus plan, he demonstrated his political strength - with
one call, the Grand Ayatollah flooded Iraqi streets up and
down the country with protesters. And, remarkably, in one
call for calm, he was able to withdraw them. If Lakhdar
Brahimi announces a transitional government whose top two
jobs are not held by Shia, Ayatollah Sistani will not remain
silent. Feeling marginalized, the power of Iraq's large
majority will be unleashed. This will push Shia moderates
into the hands of extremists.
A poll conducted
last month by the Iraqi Centre for Research and Strategic
Studies shows two-thirds of Shia still felt the war was
one of liberation. By contrast, the same poll shows two-thirds
of Sunnis felt the war shamed them. Furthermore, the poll
shows that one-third of Sunnis support attacks against the
Coalition. There is little sense in appointing a Sunni president
or prime minister whose own ethnic group are openly hostile
to the Coalition and will therefore oppose any Coalition
decision regardless. There is even less sense in such a
move, when it will serve to alienate the Shia majority.
Any multi-ethnic democracy should have provisions and safeguards
for minority groups, and that is exactly why there are two
vice-presidency positions in the transitional Iraqi government.
While many
names are being considered by Brahimi and the CPA for the
transitional government, there seems to be one certainty:
Adnan Pachachi or one of his associates will take the position
of president or prime minister. Pachachi, who opposed Iraq's
liberation and Kuwait's right to exist, is a Sunni pan-Arabist.
Bush's Iraq plan is set to fail.
