Iraqi Prospect Organisation

News Analysis

By Ahmed Shames
December 8, 2002

Saddam is trying to win time by submitting 12000 pages of information about his weapons of mass destruction. Saddam is trying to keep the inspection process going for as long a period as possible and time is on Saddam's side. The reason for this is:

Saddam knows if he can avoid a war taking place till March then there cannot be a war and he will remain in power.
At the same time he knows that it is very likely a war will occur to oust him, so does not want to reveal where his weapons of mass destruction are so that he still has a hidden hand that will make the US and UK more cautious about going to war.

The US and UK governments received the Iraqi declaration with scepticism even before they read it.
Military preparations are under way with some reports suggesting that the Americans are ready for action. Build up continues in Qatar, while the number of military raids inside Iraq has risen by 300%. Details of how to run Iraq after Saddam are being decided, but mixed messages, which can be read one way or another, are being sent to keep Saddam thinking that he can get away with it.
The British government continues its campaign to gather public support for regime change in Iraq by publishing a dossier about human rights violations in Iraq.