News Analysis

By Yasser Alaskary
January 12, 2003

  1. War is really being delayed and alternative options are being discussed.
    • This, however, is unlikely for the following reasons:
    1. Military preparations are not only continuing but intensifying. Only hours after ordering 35,000 extra troops to head for Iraq, the Pentagon ordered another 62,000 on Sunday. Furthermore, such a large number of troops cannot be maintained for too long in the region without military action.
    2. Other British and almost all American officials are still saying that war is the most likely option.
    3. Last week saw some high profile meetings between American and Iraqi opposition leaders, indicating that preparations for a post-Saddam Iraq are still continuing.
  2. The US/UK have some hidden evidence that they believe will clearly show Saddam in breach of the UN and guarantee backing for war from the UN Security Council, possibly even with another resolution. So they are now in the process of giving the impression that they want to avoid a war and are willing to give inspectors the time they need until they release this information before Blix's January 27th report.
  3. The US has decided to go to war without the UN. To cover its back and to quell opposition in parliament and the country, the UK government is creating the impression it wants to avoid a war and would like to go through the UN, so that when the US announces they are going alone, Blair can claim he is forced to join so as to influence and restrain the US.

You can find this online at http://www.iprospect.org.uk/na12jan.html